Getting Started with ArbAlert
Your complete guide to prediction market trading
Step 1: Understand Prediction Markets
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Think of it like a stock market, but instead of companies, you're trading on questions like:
- Will Team X win the Super Bowl?
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 by March?
- Will the Fed raise interest rates?
You buy "YES" or "NO" shares at prices between $0.01 and $0.99. When the event resolves, winning shares pay $1.00 and losing shares pay $0.00.
Step 2: Set Up Your Accounts
To trade, you'll need accounts on prediction market platforms:
Polymarket
Crypto-based, highest liquidity, global
- Fund with USDC on Polygon
- Best market variety
- Requires crypto wallet
Kalshi
US-regulated, USD deposits, beginner-friendly
- Bank transfer or card
- CFTC regulated
- US residents only
PredictIt
Political markets specialist
- $850 max per market
- US political focus
- Limited capacity
💡 Tip: For arbitrage, you need accounts on at least 2 platforms. We recommend starting with Polymarket + Kalshi.
Step 3: Subscribe to ArbAlert
- Choose your plan — Start with Free to learn, upgrade to Basic or Pro for real-time alerts.
- Connect notifications — Set up Telegram or enable push notifications in the app.
- Configure your preferences — Choose which alert types you want (arb, weather, whales, news).
Step 4: Your First Trade
When you receive an arbitrage alert, here's what to do:
📱 Sample Alert
🎯 ARB OPPORTUNITY
Super Bowl - Chiefs Win
Spread: 3.2% | ROI: 47% annualized
• BUY YES @ Polymarket (42¢)
• BUY NO @ Kalshi (55¢)
Total: 97¢ = $3 profit per $100
- Tap the deep links to open each platform
- Buy the YES position on Polymarket at 42¢
- Buy the NO position on Kalshi at 55¢
- Wait for the market to resolve
- Collect your guaranteed profit!
Step 5: Start Small, Learn, Scale
Week 1-2
Trade with small amounts ($10-50). Learn how each platform works. Make mistakes cheap.
Week 3-4
Study which opportunities work best for you. Track your results. Increase size gradually.
Month 2+
Scale up capital on strategies that work. Diversify across market types.
Common Beginner Mistakes
⚠️ Avoid These
- Going too big too fast — Start small until you understand the mechanics.
- Ignoring fees — Account for platform fees when calculating profit.
- Acting too slow — Arb opportunities close fast. Speed matters.
- Not reading settlement rules — Know exactly how each market resolves.
- Chasing losses — Stick to your strategy. Don't revenge trade.
Ready to Start?
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